Four point five.
That’s the average number of years of experience required for software development positions labeled as “entry level,” according to an analysis of LinkedIn job postings from January 2024. Let that sink in: Entry-level jobs demanding nearly half a decade of experience. Seems ridiculous. But it’s also a stark reflection of the paradox facing the tech industry today—one that could fundamentally reshape not just how we develop software, but who gets to be part of that future.
The trajectory is clear. In the early 2010s, “entry-level” meant precisely that: accessible to recent graduates with foundational technical skills. By the mid-2010s, prerequisites began creeping upward, with internships and personal projects becoming standard requirements. Fast forward to the early 2020s, and many roles advertised as “entry level” demanded two to three years of experience. By January 2024, that average soared to 4.5 years.
This shift has coincided with broader challenges in the tech hiring landscape. The COVID-19 pandemic brought hiring freezes, layoffs, and a prioritization of experienced professionals to maintain productivity. Remote work—while revolutionary in many ways—complicated onboarding and mentoring, making companies hesitant to hire juniors who required hands-on guidance. Meanwhile, economic pressures and increased competition, amplified by over 250,000 tech layoffs in two years, intensified the problem.
The result? A market that increasingly sidelines junior developers.
Enter generative AI. Tools like GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT have transformed software development, streamlining repetitive tasks and enabling experienced developers to work more efficiently. But this revolution has also marginalized junior developers by automating the very tasks that traditionally served as their entry point into the industry. AI now excels at generating boilerplate code, implementing simple features, and creating automated tests—the bread and butter of junior developers.
Companies, chasing short-term efficiency, are embracing a “small and senior” team model. The belief is simple: A few experienced developers, augmented by AI, can achieve what once required a larger team. But this approach comes with long-term risks—workforce gaps, knowledge erosion, burnout, and stifled innovation—all of which threaten the sustainability of the tech industry.
The junior developer crisis is not just about jobs lost or opportunities diminished. It’s about the future of software development itself. Without a robust pipeline of entry-level talent, the industry risks becoming polarized: a handful of highly skilled, highly compensated professionals on one end and a vast pool of low-skill, low-wage workers on the other, with little opportunity for upward mobility.
So, where do we go from here?
In our next blog, we’ll look at ways that, given the impact of generative AI on software careers, we can ensure that the benefits of AI-driven productivity are shared equitably. We’ll discuss strategies for individuals and companies to navigate this new reality—not just to survive but to thrive.
Stay tuned.
